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Another week of victory?
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The market is very excited and opportunistic.People wait for companies to do better than expected.Well it might continue to do so.I see Dow to reach and surpass 14,000 however I am not sure if it can stay at that level.I see 3 major risk factors for this week.
1) High market expectations exceed the surprise factor we had in the previous quarter.Some companies like Bank of America might have lower than expected earnings.However for financial investment banks I expect better than expected results.Merrill is one of them which has a surprise factor.Even continuation of double digit growth because of mergers and acquisitions.For retailers we will see a considerable slow down.Wal Mart case is much more different.I expect market to react positive to financial company results.
2) Bernanke inflation testimony( I believe he has nothing new to say and market believes so.Only a possible rate increase sigh can lower the market and he is not going to do it in front of the congress.I believe that Bernanke lost some credibility in the eyes of the market)Unless Bernanke mentions a future rate increase market reaction will be positive.
3) Some more subprime stories and price of the oil.Oil price is passing a critical level and it might have a huge inflation impact in the eyes of investors and consumers.Other han that if we got good earnings it will be a good week.
Currently, stock market bulls are betting strong second-quarter profits will send equities even higher with the earnings reporting season in full swing next week.
Rising energy and food prices coupled with uneven retail sales are not likely to slow down investors as they test the market's limits. At the same time, the financial sector is expected to avoid major losses from the subprime sector.After a week where the Dow Jones industrial average and Standard & Poor's 500 index reached record highs on mergers and acquisitions activity and multibillion-dollar blue-chip buyback plans, investors will eye profits, inflation data and the Federal Reserve for signs of further good news.
Earnings will be headlined by Microsoft Corp. , Intel Corp., Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. among an exhaustive list of major companies.
Amid the flood of results, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will give two days of semiannual testimony on U.S. monetary policy before Congress.
The speculators are very excited. Unless it is a major surprise, the external (factors) won't matter. The markets are feeding on themselves.I don't think Ben Bernanke has anything new to say at the moment about inflation, and the Federal Reserve does not think the subprime problem will derail growth.
On Friday, the Dow Jones industrial average ended at a record 13,907.25, while the Standard & Poor's 500 index set a new lifetime high at 1,555.10 and ended at 1,552.50, also a record. For the week, the blue-chip Dow average rose 2.2 percent, the S&P 500 added 1.4 percent and the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 1.5 percent.
In what will be one of the busiest weeks for corporate earnings, Wall Street also will get some fresh economic numbers to crunch.The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the U.S.
Producer Price Index for June on Tuesday and the Consumer Price Index for June on Wednesday.Economists surveyed by Reuters forecast that overall PPI, a measure of wholesale prices at the farm and factory gate, will rise 0.2 percent in June. They also see core PPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, up 0.2 percent.
CPI is expected to rise 0.1 percent in June, while core CPI is seen up 0.2 percent.
The Census Bureau's housing starts and building permits report for June is likely to show continued slowdowns, keeping the chance of a hike in the fed funds rate unlikely.
On Thursday, investors will scrutinize the minutes from the Federal Open Markets Committee's most recent meeting in late June for any further hints about monetary policy.
But most of the buzz next week will come from the torrent of profit reports. Among the quarterly results ahead, particular confidence is expected to come from the technology sector.People are just in love with technology right now.We are in the midst of a replacement cycle, plus a new technology cycle, which the iPhone represents.
Intel Corp. and Yahoo! Inc.will release earnings on Tuesday. Intel forecast a strong second-quarter profit last week, and Yahoo is expected to show a slim profit. Google Inc. which has been beating Yahoo in the Internet search business, is expected to post double-digit profit growth over the year-ago period.
Motorola Inc.and Microsoft may dampen the excitement on Thursday with the second-quarter losses seen for Motorola, and Microsoft, the world's biggest software company, likely to finish the quarter flat on flaws in the Xbox video console.
BANKS, BROKERS AND SUBPRIME
Investors may be holding their breath, however, when it comes to the financial sector to see if it regained its footing in the wake of the subprime credit markets' turmoil. This week, Standard & Poor's and rival ratings agency Moody's Investors Service downgraded billions of dollars of bonds in the increasingly unsteady subprime sector.
Merrill Lynch & Co Inc. is expected to bring solid double-digit earnings growth with expanding fees from wealth-management and banking services after its acquisition of First Republic Bank. JPMorgan Chase & Co. , a Dow component, will follow on Wednesday, with Bank of America Corp.an S&P 500 stalwart, rounding out the week with its quarterly report card on Thursday.
SMOKESTACKS, BAND-AIDS AND COKE
Industrial sector stocks are also likely to show profits, as United Technologies Corp. ), industrial supplies manufacturer Honeywell International Inc.and toolmaker Danaher Corp could also deliver some happy tidings to Wall Street with earnings reports on Thursday.
Retail sales fell unexpectedly for June on the heels of a housing sector slump and due to rising food and energy prices, the Commerce Department reported on Friday.
But Kugel said blue-chip consumer staples like Coca-Cola Co. (KO.N and Johnson & Johnson may have avoided the overall sluggishness.
However, the likes of $3-a-gallon gasoline and $4-a-gallon milk as well as other constraints on disposable income appear to be pushing consumers to discount stores like Target Corp. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc.This trend looks like it may hurt iconic motorcycle manufacturer Harley Davidson Inc. which releases results on Thursday. |
| Tarih
: 15.07.2007 |
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© 2006 Mert TOKER All Rights Reserved. |
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